PREVIEW U.S. NOV. AUTO SALES: ATPs Robust Despite Black Friday
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
Tickers
005380 KS (Hyundai Motor Co)
F US (Ford Motor Co)
FCAU US (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV)
GM US (General Motors Co)
7267 JP (Honda Motor Co Ltd)
People
Brian Johnson (Barclays PLC)
David Tamberrino (Goldman Sachs & Co)
Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA Ltd)
Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
Ryan Sees (JPMorgan Chase Bank NA)
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UUID: 7947283
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Nov. light vehicle SAAR est. 17.7m vs 18.2m y/y. Most automakers report tomorrow pre-mkt.
Alert: HALISTER1- See Bloomberg estimate chart
- GM supply chain; Ford supply chain; FCAU supply chain
- Bloomberg Intelligence primers for GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler
- BI credit primers for GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler
- 3Q results for GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler
- Goldman Sachs (David Tamberrino): Sees Black Friday sales events carrying on until month end to sustain a high pace to retail SAAR, driving only a slight y/y decline
- Sees incentives to be up y/y, beyond +$490/vehicle seen through mid-month
- CLSA (Emmanuel Rosner): Incentives rose sequentially in Nov., likely due to heavily promotional Black Friday, but the industry continued to generate robust average transaction prices amid high truck mix
- Continues to worry about cyclical risk of new car price declines and volume downturn at some point over next few years, as used car prices come under pressure and interest rates rise
- JPMorgan (Ryan Brinkman): Sees ATPs continuing to climb despite higher incentives, given a richer segment mix
- Barclays (Brian Johnson): Says baseline SAAR expectation an “eroding plateau;” volume erosion outlook based on observation that SAAR quality has gotten weaker with more incentives, more fleet, and “at some point OEMs will choose quality over volume”
- Big 3 ests.:
- GM: +9.1%
- Ford: +0.5%
- Fiat Chrysler: -9.0%
- Other ests.:
- Toyota: +3.4%
- Honda: +8.4%
- Nissan: +4.6%
- Hyundai/Kia: +6.8%
- Volkswagen: +8.8%
- Earlier, GM’s Ready to Lose $9,000 a Pop and Chase the Electric Car Boom
- Nov. 29, Nov. New Auto Sales Rose 3.6% Y/y, TrueCar Estimates
- Nov. 15, Full Fleet of Driverless Cars Remains Decades Away: NHTSA Chief
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
Tickers
005380 KS (Hyundai Motor Co)
F US (Ford Motor Co)
FCAU US (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV)
GM US (General Motors Co)
7267 JP (Honda Motor Co Ltd)
People
Brian Johnson (Barclays PLC)
David Tamberrino (Goldman Sachs & Co)
Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA Ltd)
Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
Ryan Sees (JPMorgan Chase Bank NA)
To de-activate this alert, click here
UUID: 7947283