HALISTER1: PREVIEW: UST 3Y Auction May Draw Lowest Yield Since March 2014

PREVIEW: UST 3Y Auction May Draw Lowest Yield Since March 2014

(Bloomberg) -- Current 3Y yield lower by 1.4bp at 0.817% before 1pm ET auction, 14th straight at $24b; WI 3Y bid at about 0.840%, below 3Y auction stops since 0.802% in March 2014.
  • Treasury quarterly refunding announcement on Feb. 3 left 3Y auction size unchanged and included cuts of $1b to 5Y, 7Y, 10Y and 30Y that were not widely expected
  • Most recent 3Y auction on Jan. 12 drew 1.174%, 1.1bp below WI yield at deadline, according to Stone & McCarthy; indirect award was highest since Nov. 2009 record while primary dealer award was lowest since Nov. 2009
  • Current 3Y yield touched 1.379% on Dec. 30, highest since April 2011; it retreated to 0.785% today, lowest since Oct. 2, amid declines for European and U.S. equities
  • 18 of past 19 3Y auctions stopped through by as much as 1.1bp, according to Stone & McCarthy; year-ago auction stopped through by 1bp
  • 6-auction averages:
    • Bid-to-cover: 3.10 (low 2.82, high 3.34)
    • Dealer award: 37.8% (low 27.8%, high 44.1%)
    • Direct award: 11.7% (low 8%, high 18.6%)
    • Indirect award: 50.4% (low 40.8%, high 62.9%)
  • Maturing 3Y has $32b outstanding
  • Primary dealers’ position in 2Y-3Y sector in week ended Jan. 27 was net short $3.41b vs $6.19b avg net short over past year
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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