HALISTER1: PREVIEW: UST WI 3Y Yield Above 2 Previous Auction Stops

PREVIEW: UST WI 3Y Yield Above 2 Previous Auction Stops

(Bloomberg) -- Current 3Y yield lower by 1.6bp at 0.916% before 1pm ET auction, 18th straight at $24b; WI 3Y yield about 0.935%, above last two 3Y auction stops.
  • Most recent 3Y auction on May 10 drew 0.875%, 1.6bp below WI yield at bidding deadline, biggest stop through by a 3Y sale since 2009 according to Stone & McCarthy; 28.3% primary dealer award was 2nd lowest since 2009
  • Current 3Y yield closed at YTD low 0.816% on April 7 amid losses for U.S. stocks and oil and JPY appreciation; it has since traded as high as 1.095% on May 25 amid rising market- implied odds of Fed rate increase this month
  • 20 of past 23 3Y auctions stopped through, according to Stone & McCarthy; year-ago auction stopped even with WI yield
  • 6-auction averages:
    • Bid-to-cover: 2.86 (low 2.71, high 3.14)
    • Dealer award: 35.2% (low 27.8%, high 44.7%)
    • Direct award: 12.3% (low 9.1%, high 18.6%)
    • Indirect award: 52.6% (low 41.5%, high 62.8%)
  • Maturing 3Y has $32b outstanding
  • Primary dealers’ position in 2Y-3Y sector in week ended May 25 was net short $1.89b vs $5.03b avg net short over past year
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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