HALISTER1: PREVIEW: UST WI 3Y Yield Between Two Previous Auction Stops

PREVIEW: UST WI 3Y Yield Between Two Previous Auction Stops

(Bloomberg) -- Current 3Y yield higher by 2.4bp at 0.856% before 1pm ET auction, 16th straight at $24b; WI 3Y bid at about 0.875%, between last two 3Y auction stops.
  • Most recent 3Y auction on March 8 drew 1.039%, 0.3bp above WI yield at deadline resulting in second consecutive tail for sector, according to Stone & McCarthy; produced highest primary dealer award since Dec. 2014 and lowest bid-to-cover since July 2009
  • Current 3Y yield on March 16 touched 1.197%, highest since Jan. 13, after Feb. core CPI rose more than forecast and oil rose; it closed at new YTD low 0.816% on April 7 amid losses for U.S. stocks and oil and JPY appreciation
  • 18 of past 21 3Y auctions stopped through by as much as 1.1bp, according to Stone & McCarthy; year-ago auction stopped through by 0.5bp
  • 6-auction averages:
    • Bid-to-cover: 2.92 (low 2.71, high 3.14)
    • Dealer award: 39.2% (low 27.8%, high 44.7%)
    • Direct award: 13.1% (low 9.1%, high 18.6%)
    • Indirect award: 47.7% (low 40.8%, high 62.9%)
  • Maturing 3Y has $32b outstanding
  • Primary dealers’ position in 2Y-3Y sector in week ended March 30 was net short $5.45b vs $5.62b avg net short over past year
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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