HALISTER1: Receive Hungary 2-Year IRS to Fade This Week’s Rise, ING Says

Receive Hungary 2-Year IRS to Fade This Week’s Rise, ING Says

(Bloomberg) -- ING recommends receiving 2-year HUF interest-rate swaps, targeting move to 0.14% from 0.245% at initiation of trade, strategist Petr Krpata and economist Peter Virovacz write in emailed note.
  • See this week’s selloff in Hungarian rates as a “great opportunity” to fade the move as spillovers from the external environment, related to more hawkish Fed and prospects of U.S. tax reform, should have a short-lived impact on the Hungarian curve
  • “The National Bank of Hungary does not want the market to price in higher Bubor over the next two years and will step in should the market not correct itself”
    • Expect 3-month Bubor to turn negative early 2018, prompting 2-year IRS to trade “at least below 0.15%”
    • See central bank “likely ensuring the spread between overnight deposit rate and 3-month Bubor remains at 15-20bps”
  • NOTE: Emerging-Market Sell-Off May Concern Dovish NBH: Inside Hungary
To contact the reporter on this story: Marton Eder in Budapest at meder4@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net Anil Varma

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Peter Virovacz (ING Groep NV)
Petr Krpata (ING Groep NV)

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