Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- In the event the remain camp wins with a lead of less than 5 ppts at Friday’s vote on EU membership, JPMorgan’s base case is that there’s a better-than-even chance of another referendum by the end of 2025, analysts Malcolm Barr writes in client note.

• Expects the Conservative leadership would change by year-end in such a scenario
• Cites ComRes research on prior referendums that suggests the winning margin for the status quo needs to be 20 ppts or more for the issue to drop from the political agenda; Scottish independence talk persists after the 10 ppt lead for “yes” in 2014
• A more EU-skeptic PM would likely to take a more assertive stance on a range of issues that could create the pre- conditions for another “unilateral” referendum to be called at some point
  • If there’s another European Treaty between now and 2025, easy to see the U.K.’s ratification of such changes being turned into a referendum on membership