HALISTER1: RESEARCH ROUNDUP: UST Yields, Positioning Views

RESEARCH ROUNDUP: UST Yields, Positioning Views

(Bloomberg) -- Strategist views on UST yields and curve spreads from published research:
  • Barclays
    • Market-implied probability of March rate hike at 10%-15% “is too low”; story link
  • BofAML
    • Steep yield curve could still “be priced for a recession”; story link
  • BNP
    • “Painful liquidating selloff” possible in USTs; story link
  • Citi
    • USD weakness cuts both ways for rates, stay long 5Y on curve; story link
  • Deutsche Bank
    • Lower yields are likely until Fed signals an extended pause in normalization; story link
  • Goldman Sachs
    • End-2016 10Y yield forecast lowered 25bps to 2.75%; story link
  • Morgan Stanley
    • Stay long 5Y-10Y in USTs, Germany, U.K. ahead of Yellen testimony; story link
  • Nomura
    • Outright yields “should stabilize now” absent a “total meltdown”; story link
  • Societe Generale
    • Foreign demand for USTs likely to increase, 10Y to trade around 1.95% near-term; story link
  • Stone & McCarthy
    • 10Y yield has scope to 1.6%-1.4%; story link
  • TD
    • UST curve may be flattened by “global curve steamroller”; story link
    • Short 2Y UST position hit stop at 68bp; story link
  • Wells Fargo
    • Cuts to 30Y auction supply means the UST curve “may feel added pressure to flatten”; story link
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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