HALISTER1: Rising Developed Market Rates May Hold Back Turkish Banks: Citi

Rising Developed Market Rates May Hold Back Turkish Banks: Citi

(Bloomberg) -- Given strong correlation btwn Turkish benchmark bond ylds and Turkish bank equity, rising core developed market rates do not “bode well” for Turkish bank stocks, Citigroup analyst Simon Nellis writes in e-mailed report.
  • Eventual ECB tapering seen possibly leading to higher bund yields; prompting Citi to go negative duration in Turkey
  • Upgrades earnings growth forecast for Turkish banks by 10% this yr, 8% in 2017 and 7% in 2018 on reassuring margin trends, good cost control, and upside to general provisioning
  • Garanti remains only Turkish bank within Citi’s coverage w/ buy recommendation
  • Halkbank downgraded to neutral vs buy
  • Vakifbank raised to neutral vs sell
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
GARAN TI (Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS)
HALKB TI (Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS)
VAKBN TI (Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi TAO)

People
Simon Nellis (Citigroup Inc)

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