Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- USD/THB may rally to test resistance at 36.423, Jan. 8 high, in medium term, ignoring any better-than-expected CPI data, as markets continue to price in growing probability of a Fed rate hike this year, Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty writes.

• May CPI is forecast to rise to 0.27% from 0.07% in April, according to median est. of economists in Bloomberg survey; data due tomorrow at 1:30 pm local time
• USD/THB MACD remains bullish with reading above zero and signal line
• Thai central bank has managed currency volatility to ensure baht moves in line with regional peers and doesn’t obstruct economic recovery, Governor Santiprabhob says yesterday
  • This suggests BOT accepts a lower baht versus dollar
  • USD/THB is set for first monthly gain since Dec
• Better-than-forecast U.S. payroll and wage data due June 3 should increase probability of Fed hike in coming months; Fed may hold off raising in June given Brexit event risk is upcoming
• NOTE: David Finnerty is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.