HALISTER1: Risk of ECB Disappointment for EUR Rates Market Today, BNP Says

Risk of ECB Disappointment for EUR Rates Market Today, BNP Says

(Bloomberg) -- Recent price action in EUR rates market can only be driven by expectations for additional ECB accommodation to be announced today, BNP Paribas strategists write in client note.
  • Risk of disappointment raises potential for 2Y-10Y spread to steepen
  • Recent positioning is a bet on ECB decision being favorable for tighter spreads and bull-flattening
  • Market reaction to any ECB QE extension beyond March 2017 depends on parameter changes to the purchase program
  • Most likely outcome will be decision to allow purchases at yields below the deposit facility rate, which will fuel steepening pressures in core markets
  • If ECB decides to increase purchase limit per ISIN, bull- flattening may intensify
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

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