HALISTER1: Roche Guidance Probably Accounts for Aphinity Failure: Berenberg

Roche Guidance Probably Accounts for Aphinity Failure: Berenberg

(Bloomberg) -- Business ended year somewhat more slowly than expected and 2017 guidance looks “a touch light” at EPS level, Berenberg analyst Alistair Campbell writes in client note.
  • Assuming “low-mid single digits” guidance is +4% and that FX adds another 1%, then guidance points to sales of CHF53.1b (in line with consensus) and core EPS of CHF15.3 (3% below consensus)
  • Co. guidance probably assumes that Aphinity fails; Roche said it allowed for “Aphinity outcomes”
    • It’s likely that it accounts for gap versus consensus
    • Unlikely to have a significant effect on 2017 numbers (if successful, approval wouldn’t come until 2018), but there could be some impact on Perjeta sales in neo- adjuvant setting
  • It is clear that Avastin is being displaced by uptake of immuno-oncology in lung cancer
  • Could be that the metastatic market served by Perjeta is beginning to mature, flagging importance of Aphinity to fuel future growth
  • Buy rating, PT CHF280
  • NOTE: Roche Holding pointed to slower earnings growth this year
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
ROG VX (Roche Holding AG)
4519 JP (Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd)

People
Alistair Campbell (Joh Berenberg Gossler & Co KG)

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