HALISTER1: Rupiah Losses May Slow If Exports Grow Most in 2 Years: Analysis

Rupiah Losses May Slow If Exports Grow Most in 2 Years: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- If Indonesia’s exports expand as much as expected in October, USD/IDR may leave this month’s high of 13,545 intact, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • USD/IDR currently down 0.3% at 13,328; pair hit 13,545 last Friday, highest since June 3
    • Technical support seen at 200-DMA of 13,237
    • 14-day RSI is at 75, heading lower toward overbought threshold
  • Exports probably rose 3.60% y/y after contracting 0.59% in September, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; that would be fastest growth since September 2014
    • Ests. range from +0.90% to +7.71%; data due today
  • Imports likely grew 4.90% y/y from -2.26% in September while the trade surplus is seen narrowing to $1b from $1.2b, other surveys show
  • NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
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