HALISTER1: Scale Into Conditional USD/EUR 6m5y Spread Wideners: Commerzbank

Scale Into Conditional USD/EUR 6m5y Spread Wideners: Commerzbank

(Bloomberg) -- Scale into a USD/EUR spread widener in the belly of swap curves to capitalize on divergent policies of major central banks, Commerzbank strategist Markus Koch writes in client note.
  • Buy USD 6m5y swaption payers vs premium-neutral sale of EUR 6m5y payers, targeting a ~30bp wider spread on 6-month horizon
  • As a hedge against the resulting net DV01 exposure of the zero-cost position, rely on the ECB cap, “free of charge”
  • Assuming USD 5y IRS rises by ~25bp to reach 1.65% at expiry, P&L is cushioned against losses, unless EUR 5y IRS were to rise by more than 13bp
  • Swaptions would expire worthless under most bullish scenario, preventing a negative P&L result while a vanilla IRS set-up would incur a loss
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Markus Koch (Commerzbank AG)

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