HALISTER1: Singapore Swap Curve Steepening May Halt if Exports Weak: Charts

Singapore Swap Curve Steepening May Halt if Exports Weak: Charts

(Bloomberg) -- Rapid steepening in Singapore’s swap curve may pause near term if exports data continue to show signs of weakness, Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield writes.
  • Spread between 2- and 10-year Singapore interest-rate swaps currently at 102bps, widening from 87bps a day before U.S. elections last week; chart here
  • SGD curve momentum studies are in extreme overstretched territory suggesting a near term consolidation is possible
    • Slow stochastics %K at 97, MACD at levels last seen in 2013
  • Singapore non-oil domestic exports probably fell 3.0% y/y in October vs -4.8% y/y in September, according to median estimate in Bloomberg survey; data due at 8:30am on Thursday
    • Singapore’s non-oil exports have contracted on 8 out of the past 11 months
  • NOTE: Mark Cranfield is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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