Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Unlikely the Socialist (PSOE) party leader will win the March 2 confidence vote even after the pact with pro-market Ciudadanos party as would need an absolute majority, Federico Santi, analyst at Eurasia, says in interview.

• There’s a higher chance of success at this week’s second vote, as the parties need only a simple majority of the MPs who vote; even so, still looks unlikely
• Left-wing Podemos’s response has been quite negative and everything points to them not giving in at this stage
• Spain’s political parties will continue to discuss possible tie-ups after the votes and expect PSOE to be pushing left- wing Podemos to back them as their support would be enough for them to get to power
  • PSOE’s program is still quite left-leaning and seems designed to put pressure on Podemos to back them
  • Significant differences remain between PSOE and Podemos: on economic policy but especially on the issue of Catalonia
  • Supporting PSOE may drive a wedge between it and its regional supporters
• In the meantime, acting PM’s PP party will be trying to win back the initiative and bring Ciudadanos and PSOE on board; the latter has little incentive though while it’s still trying to win over Podemos
• Pressure may build on the parties to come up with a solution as the deadline to form a government or face new elections, at the start of May, nears
• Don’t expect PSOE leader Pedro Sanchez or acting PM and PP leader Mariano Rajoy to step down
  • Sanchez’s strategy seems to have worked well for him and can’t see anyone trying to displace him now while he has a chance to become PM
  • Don’t see someone stepping up to challenge Rajoy either so any decision to step aside would be his decision
• NOTE: PSOE leader Sanchez said he’ll ask other progressive parties to back his proposal to oust Rajoy Monday; 176 seats are needed for a majority compared with 130 PSOE/Ciudadanos hold