Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- The “leave” camp may do significantly better in the June 23 referendum than indicated by most recent polls or betting markets, Citigroup analysts led by Tina M Fordham write in client note.

• Recent polls showing a possible pro-EU lead in terms of voting intentions may actually signal a small consistent pro-exit lead among people who will actually vote
• Polls which assume all people with a view will vote likely exaggerate support for the remain camp, unless turnout is more than 90%
• Younger voters are more strongly pro-EU and are also much less likely to actually vote on the day
• Turnout is unlikely to be as high as the 84.6% who voted in the Scottish referendum and may be asymmetric with polls suggesting supporters of leaving are more likely to vote
• Complacency and low levels of enthusiasm may also lead to lower turnout among those voters who support staying in the EU
• A significant proportion of women are undecided and could become a key constituency
• Still, Citi puts probability of a vote to leave at 30% to 40%, and an acceleration of the refugee crisis, a relapse of the Greece crisis, fresh political scandal or a terrorist attack could influence the outcome
• NOTE: Analysts say GBP strength reflects greater certainty the electorate will back the “remain” camp, but this may reflect a misreading of recent opinion polls