HALISTER1: Swedbank Sees Swedish Inflation Remaining Above Target in August

Swedbank Sees Swedish Inflation Remaining Above Target in August

(Bloomberg) -- Swedbank estimates that Swedish CPI and CPIF were unchanged at 2.2% y/y for CPI and 2.4% y/y for CPIF in August, driven by rising housing and service prices, economists Jorgen Kennemar and Ake Gustafsson say in note.
  • Estimates that both measures fell by 0.1% m/m
  • Says Aug. inflation will be especially interesting after the surprisingly high inflation numbers during the summer, especially in July, when CPIF rose 2.4% y/y
  • Inflation figures hard to interpret, since they are affected by several temporary factors
  • Biggest wild card is price of package travel, partly because of a new measurement method Statistics Sweden introduced at start of year
  • Even excluding package travel, underlying inflation has risen to about 2%
  • Riksbank’s latest forecast is about 10 bps below Swedbank’s, which could be because it expects a bigger drop in travel prices
  • NOTE: Swedish inflation data for August due on Sept. 12 at 9:30am CET
To contact the reporter on this story: Love Liman in Stockholm at jliman1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net Niklas Magnusson

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Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Ake Gustafsson (Swedbank AB)
Jorgen Kennemar (Swedbank AB)

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