HALISTER1: Tactically Buy 10y Gilts vs USTs Ahead of Inflation Report: RBC

Tactically Buy 10y Gilts vs USTs Ahead of Inflation Report: RBC

(Bloomberg) -- With 2065 gilt syndication out of the way, limited supply pressure in coming weeks amid ongoing BOE QE purchases; recommend buying 10y gilt (09/2025) vs USTs (08/2026) ahead of BOE Inflation Report, RBC strategists, including Vatsala Datta, write in a client note.
  • Expect the BOE to maintain a dovish bias at the Inflation Report next week; will look through the rise in short-term inflation
    • Economic activity has held in-line with BOE’s expectations and rhetoric from the bank has supported an easing bias
  • Key risk to the trade is a squeeze in USTs heading into the U.S. Presidential election on Nov. 8, but with the polls increasingly becoming one-sided, see this as a relatively minor risk
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Vatsala Datta (RBC Europe Ltd)

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