Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- A contraction, in Taiwan’s exports in August could trigger a reversal in USD/TWD 1-month NDF’s near-term direction, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.

• Exports probably rose 0.2% y/y after 1.2% growth in July, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from -7.7% to +2.3%; data due 4pm local time on Wednesday
  • Related data may show imports fell 4.5% y/y last month and trade surplus widened to $4.17b from $3.61b: other surveys
• NDF could retrace back to 50-DMA, currently at 31.758; forward has not traded above this moving avg since June 28
  • 1-mo. NDF is holding above 31.175 level, which is 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from Aug. 10 to 22
• NDF now little changed at 31.292 after touching 31.223, lowest since Aug. 18
• NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice