HALISTER1: Taiwan Exports Miss Could Halt USD/TWD Forwards’ Slide: Analysis

Taiwan Exports Miss Could Halt USD/TWD Forwards’ Slide: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- A contraction in Taiwan’s exports in August could trigger a reversal in USD/TWD 1-month NDF’s near-term direction, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Exports probably rose 0.3% y/y after 1.2% growth in July, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from -7.7% to +3.8%; data due 4pm local time
    • Related data may show imports fell 4.3% y/y last month and trade surplus widened to $4.13b from $3.61b: other surveys
  • NDF could retrace back to 50-DMA, currently at 31.717; forward has not traded above this moving avg since June 28
    • 1-mo. NDF is holding above 31.010 level, which is 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from Aug. 10 to 22
  • NDF now up 0.2% at 31.115 after earlier touching 31.031, matching Aug. 17 low
  • NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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