HALISTER1: Taiwan Forwards May Eye 100-DMA If Growth Disappoints: Analysis

Taiwan Forwards May Eye 100-DMA If Growth Disappoints: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Slower-than-expected growth in 2Q could be the trigger for USD/TWD 1-mo. NDF to rally to 100-DMA resistance in near term, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Taiwan’s GDP probably grew 0.7% y/y after 0.68% contraction in 1Q, according to median est. in Bloomberg survey. Ests. range from -0.7% to +1.4%; data due 8:30am local time on July 29
    • Weaker growth could give impetus for CBC easing, with a cut to the 1.375% rate. This isn’t expected until 4Q 2017, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists
    • Separate survey of bond traders expect the Taiwanese central bank to cut the discount rate in 3Q this year
    • NOTE: Next policy meeting due in second half of Sept.
  • 2Q GDP growth data reported for competitor economies such as S.Korea and China beat median ests.
  • NDF could test 100-DMA, at 32.337 today; NDF hasn’t closed above this MA since March 2
  • 1-mo. NDF slides 0.2% to 31.912
  • NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283