HALISTER1: TAIWAN PREVIEW: Weak Exports May See USD/TWD NDF Rise to 100-DMA

TAIWAN PREVIEW: Weak Exports May See USD/TWD NDF Rise to 100-DMA

(Bloomberg) -- Bigger-than-expected fall in June exports could be trigger for USD/TWD 1-mo. NDF to climb to 100-DMA resistance for first time in four months near term, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Exports likely fell 3.1% y/y vs 9.6% drop in May, according to median est. in Bloomberg survey; ests. range from -6.8% to +1.8%; data due 4pm local time tomorrow
    • Exports have been worse than median est. on eight occasions in last 12 months
  • June imports forecast -3.5% y/y and trade surplus down to $2b from $3.5b, other surveys show
  • 1-mo. NDF down 0.2% at 32.268; 100-DMA at 32.490
    • Hasn’t closed above 100-DMA since March 2
  • NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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