HALISTER1: Thai 2Q GDP Growth Data Could Pressure BOT and Baht: Analysis

Thai 2Q GDP Growth Data Could Pressure BOT and Baht: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Slowing growth in 2Q could pressure Thai central bank to ease rates further, and push the baht down, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Growth probably +3.2% y/y, same as 1Q, Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range 2.7%-3.9%
    • Data due 9:30am local time on Aug. 15
    • Top forecaster ranked by Bloomberg sees 2.7% y/y growth
  • Govt asked state enterprises to accelerate spending in final three months of fiscal 2016 ending Sept., Deputy PM Somkid Jatusripitak said on Aug. 10
  • Central bank last eased policy rate in April 2015, a surprise 25 bps cut to 1.50%; next meeting is Sept. 14; 2 of 11 economists predict a 25 bps cut to 1.25%; rest see unchanged
  • USD/THB up 0.1% at 34.810 today; could rise to 50-DMA of 35.084 near term if data disappoint
    • Williams %R turns bullish, crosses above oversold threshold to -72
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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