Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Labor-market data is expected to remain robust as it’s too soon for any impact from the June referendum on EU membership and given that economic performance has been resilient, analysts say.

• August 3-month ILO unemployment rate estimated to stay at 4.9%; September jobless claims change forecast at 3.2k
• U.K. weekly earnings 3-month est. 2.3% y/y vs prior 2.3%
• U.K. weekly earnings 3-mo. average ex-bonus est. 2.1% y/y vs 2.1%
• Today’s data are likely to show scant evidence of any immediate damage caused by Britain’s decision to leave the EU, Bloomberg Intelligence economist Dan Hanson writes
  • Labor demand tends to lag economic activity and the lack of clarity about the post-Brexit regime will likely prompt slower hiring, rather than firing, he says
• The labor market usually responds to changes in economic growth with a lag of 1-2 quarters so given strong GDP in 2Q, it may not be until early 2017 until the U.K. sees a marked Brexit-related slowing in labor market activity, Deutsche Bank’s George Buckley writes in client note
• There’s more scope for the pound to gain on good data than to extend losses on bad numbers, given BNP’s positioning indicator suggests GBP shorts are getting stretched and sterling trades are quite cheap to proprietary model estimates, according to analysts at the bank
• Dec. MPC-dated Sonia (GBP OIS) forwards price an additional 3bps of easing, with fixing following December’s meeting now expected to be about 0.185%, roughly 3bps lower than recent Sonia fixings, Bloomberg strategist Richard Jones writes
• NOTE: Tighter policy would have meant lower economic growth and that would have increased the chances of unemployment going up, BOE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said this week