Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. 3Q GDP growth is expected to drop to to 0.3% q/q from 0.7% in the previous quarter, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists; this is the first GDP report for the months following the June 23 Brexit referendum.

• Forecast range is zero to 0.5% q/q, skewed toward the upside
  • BOE, in its August Inflation Report, said available evidence suggested growth would slow to 0.1% in 3Q
  • In the minutes for the September meeting, the projections were revised to “0.3% in the mature data and for 0.2% in the preliminary release”
• JPMorgan economist Allan Monks says there’s an unusually wide spread of views among economists going into today’s announcement
  • He expects growth of 0.4% given limited evidence of a slowing in the published data and on the strength in the July services data in particular
• The pace of expansion is likely to beat the BOE’s August forecast by some margin and convince the MPC that the shock to the economy from the vote has so far been less acute than feared, Bloomberg Intelligence economist Dan Hanson writes
  • That should all but erase the chances of a further rate cut this year, he says
• Nomura analyst Jordan Rochester says a positioning squeeze in GBP is unlikely as market is more concerned about politics, and says risk-reward would still favor being short
  • Rates strategist at Nomura, Andy Chaytor, suggests receiving November MPC-dated Sonia and perhaps even February-dated, given the curve is so flat