Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- A poll showing support among voters to leave the EU increased in the week PM David Cameron agreed a reform package may be a knee-jerk reaction rather than the start of a new trend, JPMorgan analyst Allan Monks writes in client note.

• This poll was conducted at a time when media write-ups of the draft deal were scathing and it shows support for the out campaign is lower if the proposed changes are agreed
• A major caveat to any of the polls at the moment is the large number of people who are undecided on how they will vote in the referendum, which was 17% in this survey
• How the undecideds vote, assuming they do, will be key
  • Two major factors will be extent to which fear of unknown persuades them to vote to remain and issues surrounding migration
  • Backing of EU membership from leading politicians and businesses could help to make up the minds of those undecided
• Regardless of the ultimate effect leaving would have on the U.K., JPMorgan believes the transitional costs would be high
• NOTE: Brexit Wiping 2%-7% off U.K. potential GDP seems reasonable, Axa IM said last week