Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Nonfarm payrolls seen at +180k in Aug. vs +255k in July (forecast range +92k to +255k); July increase was second-largest gain of 2016.

• In June and July combined, payrolls +547k, strongest back- to-back gain since last yr
  • “As long as hiring gains stay at 150k a month or better, which is feasible, Fed officials will focus in the interim on signs indicating the economy has reached full employment, such as accelerating wage inflation": Bloomberg Intelligence
• Average hourly earnings est. +0.2% m/m in Aug. vs +0.3% in July (forecast range -0.1% to +0.3%)
• Unemployment rate seen at 4.8% in Aug. vs 4.9% in July (forecast range 4.6% to 5%); tracks number of unemployed as percentage of labor force; below 5% three consecutive mos., 1st time since 2007
  • ‘‘With trend employment growth still running at more than double our 85k estimate of the breakeven rate, we expect the labor market to reach full employment by early 2017 and to surpass it thereafter’’: Goldman Sachs
• Also today, international trade balance in goods and services seen at -$41.4b in July vs June’s -$44.5b (forecast range -$38.7b to -$46b)