HALISTER1: U.S. Payrolls Face March Jinx After Fed’s Dovish Twist: Analysis

U.S. Payrolls Face March Jinx After Fed’s Dovish Twist: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- March is the cruelest month for U.S. non-farm payrolls as the published data came below estimates in seven of past eight years, Bloomberg strategist Tanvir Sandhu writes.
  • From 2008, actual release numbers fell short of the median in Bloomberg survey forecasts by an average of ~53k, bar chart on deviations here
  • Since 2000, March NFP missed est. 67% of the time by an average of 69k
  • In March 2015, the headline number was ~119k below ests, the biggest miss since 2001
  • NOTE: Data to be published April 1; est. 200k vs 242k in Feb.; predictions range between 145k and 230k
  • Fed rate hike in April largely off the table after FOMC marked down interest rate increase forecasts by 50bps for this yr
    • U.S. OIS curve currently assigning 7% probability of 25bps rate increase in April vs 26% on March 14, while Sept. hike probability is 75% vs 91%
  • NOTE: Fed Relents But U.S. Rates Volatility Lags Europe Slide, see analysis here
  • NOTE: Tanvir Sandhu is an interest-rate and derivatives strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283