HALISTER1: U.S. to See Just 1.5% Growth in 1H Amid Stimulus Delay: BofA

U.S. to See Just 1.5% Growth in 1H Amid Stimulus Delay: BofA

(Bloomberg) -- Delays in fiscal stimulus and potentially greater trade tensions lead to “out-of-consensus” forecast for slow growth of 1.5% in 1H, BofA economist Michelle Meyer, others write in note Thursday.
  • Fiscal stimulus to push up growth to mid-2% in 2H and 2018, after “bumpy start”
  • Still expecting one rate increase this year, likely in September; now also says that a second hike this year could be a “close call”
    • Reiterates prior forecast for three hikes in 2018
  • FOMC will display greater conviction about reduced labor market slack, upward trend of inflation in its Feb. 1 statement
  • Employment report released Friday is likely to show unemployment rate holding at 4.7%, gain of 160k jobs
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Michelle Meyer (Bank of America Corp)

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