Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- USD/IDR 1-mo. NDF may revisit the year’s low if Indonesia’s CPI fails to slow as economists predict, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.

• Consumer prices probably rose 3.38% y/y following a 3.45% gain in June, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from 3.1% to 3.7%; data due on Aug. 1
• Bank Indonesia sees July inflation at +3.6% y/y, Governor Martowardojo says
• Firmer inflation could stall further BI easing; central bank held reference rate steady at 6.50% at July 21 meeting, when majority of economists in Bloomberg survey had expected a 25 bp cut
  • Separate Bloomberg survey shows median est. of economists predicting a 25 bp cut by year-end
• 1-mo NDF could drop to 12,995, the 2016 low reached on March 17 and 18; currently +0.4% to 13,194
  • Slow stochastics %K line drops below %D line to 54
• NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice