Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- USD/IDR 1-mo. NDF may revisit the year’s low if Indonesia’s CPI for July is higher than forecast, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.

• CPI probably rose 3.37% y/y following 3.45% increase in June, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from +3.07% to +3.70%; data due today
• Bank Indonesia sees July inflation at +3.6% y/y, Governor Martowardojo said Friday
• Firmer inflation could stall further BI easing; central bank held reference rate steady at 6.50% at July 21 meeting, when majority of economists in Bloomberg survey had expected a cut of 25 bps
  • Separate Bloomberg survey shows 25-bp cut seen by yr- end, according to median est.
• 1-mo. NDF could drop to 12,995, the 2016 low reached on March 17 and 18; now little changed at 13,127
  • Slow stochastics %K line is at 43 and falling
• NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.