HALISTER1: USD/IDR May Hit 4-Mo. Low If Trade Surplus Beats Est.: Analysis

USD/IDR May Hit 4-Mo. Low If Trade Surplus Beats Est.: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- A larger-than-expected Indonesia trade surplus in June could push USD/IDR down to the 13,000 level last reached in March in the near term, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Nation’s trade surplus probably narrowed to $87m from $376m in May, still the sixth surplus in a row, according to median est. in Bloomberg survey; ests. range from -$250m to +$723m
    • Data due tomorrow; last three releases have been between 9:48am and 11:13am local time
  • Bank Indonesia sees June trade surplus of $800m, Juda Agung, BI’s executive director of monetary policy said yesterday
  • Exports likely fell 12.90% y/y while imports declined 9.40% y/y, other surveys show
  • USD/IDR little changed at 13,090 today; last touched 13,000 level on March 7
  • NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Juda Agung (Bank Indonesia)

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