HALISTER1: USD/PHP NDFs May Test 50-DMA If Growth Beats Estimate: Analysis

USD/PHP NDFs May Test 50-DMA If Growth Beats Estimate: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Stronger-than-expected Philippines 3Q GDP growth may send USD/PHP 1-month NDF falling near term toward 50-DMA which has held since early September, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Economy probably expanded 6.7% y/y after 7.0% increase in 2Q, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from 6.2% to 7.1%; data due 10am local time on Nov. 17
  • Strong performance in agriculture and exports could see 3Q GDP growth exceed 7%, Economic Planning Secretary Pernia said on Nov. 15
    • Only 1 out of 15 economists in survey forecasts growth above 7%
  • 1-mo NDF is down 0.2% at 49.37; 50-DMA is at 48.44
    • Momentum studies are bearish as slow stochastics %K line drops below overbought threshold to 72; 14-day RSI is falling
  • NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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