Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- USD/SGD’s trading range on April 14 policy day may be between 90 and 159 pips, even if Singapore’s central bank maintains its stance, Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield writes.

• Historical patterns suggest that trading ranges tended to be relatively wide on policy days which followed a central bank decision to act in the prior meeting
• Twelve of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast MAS will maintain the current stance after easing policy in October by reducing “slightly” the pace of SGD appreciation vs its trading partners; click here for survey
• USD/SGD traded in a 159-pip range on April 14, 2015 when MAS held policy steady after an unexpected Jan. decision to ease in between scheduled meetings
• USD/SGD moved 90 pips on October 12, 2012 policy day following a tightening earlier in April
  • Subsequent intraday ranges on policy days narrowed to 31 and 43 pips in 2013 when monetary stance was kept unchanged for a second and third successive time
• SGD is trading around 0.4% above the midpoint of its NEER band after reaching 1% above in mid-March and 1% below in February, suggesting market positioning hasn’t been neutral for several weeks
• USD/SGD now 1.3453 vs 1.3786 on October 14 when MAS last held its semi-annual policy meeting
  • 1st resistance at 1.3475, 5-DMA; 2nd resistance at 1.3495, 10-DMA; 1st support at 1.3415, March 31 low; 2nd support at 1.3354, 10-month low
• NOTE: Oct. 14 - Singapore Eases Policy as Economy Narrowly Avoids Recession

• NOTE: Mark Cranfield is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.