HALISTER1: USD/THB Likely Rangebound If BOT Doesn’t Change Rates: Analysis

USD/THB Likely Rangebound If BOT Doesn’t Change Rates: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- USD/THB likely to remain within 34.70-35.50 range short-term if Bank of Thailand leaves benchmark rate unchanged, Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty writes.
  • All 21 economists in Bloomberg survey expect BOT to hold rate at 1.50% given backdrop of slowly improving economy, driven by tourism and govt spending, and inflation
    • Decision due 2:30pm local time tomorrow
  • CPI in April rose 0.07% y/y, first positive reading since Dec. 2014; core CPI was up 0.78%, rising for third consecutive month
  • Brent crude oil prices have improved since March meeting, which should aid inflation
  • USD is finding support against most APAC currencies despite mixed U.S. payroll data last week; may see FX pair grind toward upper end of range
  • USD/THB up 0.3% at 35.248
  • NOTE: David Finnerty is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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BOT TB (Bank of Thailand)

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