Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- A steeper-than-expected decline in Taiwan’s exports in July could be the trigger for USD/TWD 1-mo. NDF to rebound to 21-DMA of 31.882 in near term, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.

• Exports probably fell 2.0% y/y following a 2.1% decline in June, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from -4.0% to -1.0%; data due at 4pm local time on Aug. 8
  • Another negative print for exports growth would be the 18th month in a row
• Imports fell 5.0% y/y while trade surplus widened to $3.81b from $3.58b, median ests. in other surveys show
• Central bank is likely to trim its policy rate by another 12.5 bps in 3Q as persistently contracting export orders impose downward pressure on the island’s economic growth, Scotiabank writes in note today
  • NOTE: Export orders fell 2.4% y/y in June, data released July 20 showed; that was 14th straight month of negative growth
• 1-mo. NDF falls 0.5% to 31.365 after touching 31.330 earlier, weakest since July 2015
• NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice