Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- A steeper-than-expected decline in Taiwan’s exports in July could be the trigger for USD/TWD 1-mo. NDF to rebound to 21-DMA of 31.846 near term, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.

• Exports probably fell 2.0% y/y following a 2.1% decline in June, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from -4.0% to -1.0%; data due at 4pm local time
  • Would be 18th negative monthly print in a row
• Imports fell 5.0% y/y while trade surplus widened to $3.81b from $3.58b, median ests. in other surveys show
• Central bank is likely to trim its policy rate by another 12.5 bps in 3Q as persistently contracting export orders impose downward pressure on the island’s economic growth, Scotiabank wrote in Aug. 5 note
  • NOTE: Export orders fell 2.4% y/y in June, data released July 20 showed; that was 14th straight month of negative growth
• 1-mo. NDF rises 0.1% to 31.423 after touching 31.330 on Aug. 5, weakest since July 2015
• NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice