Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- USD/TWD 1-mo. NDF could retreat further from 50-DMA resistance if Taiwan imports rise as much as economists predict, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.

• Imports surge could imply a boost in exports in coming months
• Median est. in Bloomberg survey is for imports to rise 8.0% y/y in Sept. vs -0.8% previous month; would be first positive reading since Nov. 2014 and biggest growth since Aug. that year
  • Ests. range from -4.0% to +13.0%
• Taiwan’s trade surplus probably narrowed to $3.92b from $3.99b in Aug. thanks to imports growth, another Bloomberg survey show
• Exports forecast to rise 2.8% y/y vs 1.0% increase in Aug.
• All data due 4pm local time tomorrow
• Improvement in Taiwan data may be short-lived, HSBC writes in note today
• 1-mo. NDF down 0.2% at 31.361
  • Touched one-week high of 31.461 yesterday
  • 50-DMA is 31.431
• NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.