HALISTER1: UST 10Y Yield Can Reach 3% in 3 to 6 Months, BNP Says

UST 10Y Yield Can Reach 3% in 3 to 6 Months, BNP Says

(Bloomberg) -- 10Y yield has scope to 3.75% based on term premium and expected Fed rate path, to 4% based on real yield and breakeven inflation, Shahid Ladha, head of G10 rates strategy in Americas at BNP Paribas, says in press briefing.
  • “We expect an increase in risk premia leading to higher rates, steeper curves, higher breakevens and higher volatility,” Ladha says
  • BNP recommends selling UST 10Y at 2.30%, targeting 3%, with stop at 2%; carry is -2bp/month
  • 2Y yield can reach 1.4% in 3-6 months
  • They expect curve to steepen, favor 5s10s
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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BNP FP (BNP Paribas SA)

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Shahid Ladha (BNP Paribas SA)

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