HALISTER1: UST 2Y Auction Faces Valuation Hurdles, BMO Says

UST 2Y Auction Faces Valuation Hurdles, BMO Says

(Bloomberg) -- While $26b sale at 1pm ET should “go OK” based on recent yield backup and “what we believe are increasing shorts in Treasuries,” from an RV or flows perspective “there isn’t a whole lot that looks attractive,” BMO strategists Aaron Kohli and Neil Bouhan say in note.
  • Primary dealer positions “are looking historically long”
  • Yellen speaks at 12:20pm ET tomorrow, which may necessitate a yield premium
  • 2s recently have outperformed 3s and 5s on curve
  • Real 2yr yields “look somewhat rich”
  • Possibility of an unscheduled reopening, which would cheapen the issue
  • Flows negative in past month for iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY US)
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
SHY US (iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF)

People
Aaron Kohli (Bank of Montreal)
Neil Bouhan (Bank of Montreal)

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