HALISTER1: UST MORNING CALL: ‘April Hike Completely Off the Table’

UST MORNING CALL: ‘April Hike Completely Off the Table’

(Bloomberg) -- “The Fed has effectively taken an April hike completely off the table and we’ll argue done some significant damage to any chance of a June hike,” CRT strategist David Ader says in note.
  • “In the absence of a June move, the September 21 meeting starts to look like an attractive inflection point –- data contingent of course –- if for no other reason than we’re getting into the election and year-end considerations”
  • Other observations from strategist morning notes:
  • FTN (Jim Vogel): “Selling should become a bit brisker at 1.795%” on the 10Y, “but the overall message is yields are back to familiar territory with little need to make big moves in fixed income before new econ data sheds light on whether March activity can keep Q1 GDP close to 2.0%”
  • Marty Mitchell (independent): “Look for a good underlying bid to support the bond market and for any pullback to be shallow in the near-term,” and UST “yield curve to maintain a steepening bias as we head toward the off-cycle refunding in early April”
  • Seaport Global (Tom di Galoma): “Month-end duration adjustments continue to play a role in strengthening bond prices; however, looking out short-term I expect some tactical selling to take place around the 1.8% level on 10yrs due to credit supply and prior to NFP on Friday”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
David Ader (CRT Capital Group LLC)
Jim Vogel (Ftn Financial)
Marty Mitchell (The Mitchell Market Report LLC)
Tom Di Galoma (Seaport Group LLC/The)

Topics
UST Morning Call

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