Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Focus on recent front-end underperformance given global risk environment; impact of U.S. payrolls data due tomorrow seen as more unpredictable; bias toward buying dips.

• Front-end of curve lagging in the last few days as coming data will marginally impact Fed timing, while long-end appears to be in waning days of yield grab, BMO writes in a client note
  • No clear level of NFP gains at which market would price high probability of Fed rate increase this year: BMO
• Treasury set to announce auction sizes at 11am; expect amounts to be unchanged from prior month at $24b 3Y, $20b 10Y, $12b 30Y; fair value 3Y roll is +1.5b, JPMorgan writes in a client note
• Favor buying pullbacks on yield back-up after ADP, given global demand for rates products outweighs availability, Seaport Global’s Tom Digaloma writes in a client note
• Technicals:
  • Resistance: 134-07/07+ (June 24, July 6 highs)
  • Support: 133-00 (July 4 low), 132-14+ (50% of June 24 range), 131-01 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June 24 range)