HALISTER1: UST MORNING CALL: Mixed Views on Fed Dots; 10Y Overbought: JPM

UST MORNING CALL: Mixed Views on Fed Dots; 10Y Overbought: JPM

(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries continue to rally overnight as the market reprices Brexit risks. Focus on Fed decision on Wed.
  • Tactical indicators move into overbought territory; 10Y note rally meeting resistance near 1.60%, watch for signs of a bearish reversal but don’t see any at this point, JPMorgan writes in a client note
  • Credit Suisse strategists write in note that “persistently call-heavy” trading in TY options has pushed sentiment indicator to another sell signal: MORE
  • Focus on dots in the Fed decision; expect a group of dots to move to one hike in 2016, even if the median dot stays at two; expect front-end of U.S. rate market to price in less than the Fed -- a typical, historically correct bias, RBS writes in a note
    • Dots likely keep two hikes on the calendar for this year; should lead to mild flattening, unlikely to inspire a large move, BMO writes in a client note
  • Technicals:
    • Resistance: 132-07+
    • Support: 131-18 (June 13 low); 131-09 (June 9 high)
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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