HALISTER1: UST MORNING CALL: Month-End Extensions; RBS Long 10Y Breakevens

UST MORNING CALL: Month-End Extensions; RBS Long 10Y Breakevens

(Bloomberg) -- Recent decline in 10Y TIPS breakeven rates has seen strategists at RBS and Citi turn bullish; some focus on upcoming month-end extensions.
  • RBS recommends long 10Y TIPS breakevens at 1.37%, target 1.60%, according to a client note; rationale is a cleaner expression of Fed-on-hold trade, added at this level due to substantial pullback from the highs
    • Citi also favors long 10Y TIPS breakevens: MORE
  • JPMorgan says 10Y yields touched an all-time low of 1.38% in July 2012, which will define the rich end of a new medium- term range, strategists write
    • However, vulnerable equity market setup elevates the risk for a blow-off to lower yields in coming days: JPM
  • Month-end flows may begin to drive price action in coming sessions; Barclays U.S. Aggregate to extend by 0.08 years
    • Expect a major roll from month-end flows later this week, like buying the backup in yields; in addition, there’s a long weekend ahead, Seaport Global’s Tom Digaloma writes in a client note
  • Technicals:
    • Resistance: 133-18 (June 28 overnight high);
    • Support: 132-28 (June 27 low); 132-20+/24 (Opening gap June 24/27)
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Tom Di Galoma (Seaport Group LLC/The)

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