HALISTER1: UST MORNING CALL: ‘Odds Favor a Muted Reaction’ to Payrolls

UST MORNING CALL: ‘Odds Favor a Muted Reaction’ to Payrolls

(Bloomberg) -- “Against mixed data this week and central bank decisions looming the next two weeks, odds favor a muted reaction to payroll totals and average wage changes this morning,” FTN strategist Jim Vogel says in note.
  • Other observations from strategist morning notes:
  • BMO (Aaron Kohli): “We broadly still think the 10yr part of the curve is too rich, but market mechanics, especially significant richness in repo suggests it may not be easy for investors to sell the benchmark 10yr note”
  • Marty Mitchell (independent): “Buying on an extended move to the 1.90%/1.97% area” on the 10Y, and “selling on a rally to the 1.775%/1.70% area are both advisable”
  • RBS (John Briggs): “Bears should look for 10s to potentially retrace towards the 1.65%-1.70% resistance zone to re-engage, and bulls should keep an eye on 1.90%-1.93% area,” as “any data that moves us through those levels on a closing basis today likely means a re-evaluation”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Aaron Kohli (Bank of Montreal)
Jim Vogel (Ftn Financial)
John Briggs (RBS Securities Inc)
Marty Mitchell (The Mitchell Market Report LLC)

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