HALISTER1: Weaker Aug. NFP to Keep Fed on Hold in Sept.: Renaissance

Weaker Aug. NFP to Keep Fed on Hold in Sept.: Renaissance

(Bloomberg) -- Even with weaker NFP in Aug., “relentless” positive trend in employment growth should push Fed to raise rates later this yr, Renaissance Macro Research economist Neil Dutta writes in note.
  • “The bar for a September rate hike is high; however, the bar to not raise this year is also high”
  • Aug. jobs report “not a game-changer,” will likely keep Fed on sidelines this mo.
  • Expect 2H to strengthen, labor mkt to tighten, jobless rate to resume decline and one rate increase in Dec.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Neil Dutta (Renaissance MacRo Research LLC)

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BGOV Finance

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