Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Philippine exports are expected to contract for a 17th straight month in Aug., when the peso held firm, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.

• Exports probably fell 8.3% y/y after 13.0% contraction in July, based on median est. in Bloomberg survey; forecasts range from -10.2% to -5.0%; data due at 9am local time tomorrow
• Related data may show imports rose 10.0% y/y after 1.7% decline in July and trade deficit widened to $2.09b from $2.05b, other surveys show
• Trade deficit is expected to continue in medium term as global demand remain weak and imports, particularly of capital goods, remains strong; exports likely supported by sharp depreciation of the peso in Sept., Standard Chartered wrote in Oct. 7 note
• Peso advanced 1.1% vs dollar in Aug.; it fell 3.9% in Sept. ** It’s up 0.1% to 48.250 per dollar today
• If exports fall less than expected, peso could advance to 21-DMA at 48.005 per dollar in near term
• NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice