WRAP: BOJ Lifts Japan Bond Yield Curve With Stage-Setting Policy
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
Amy Zhuang (Nordea Markets)
Hiroshi Yanagisawa (GMO internet Inc)
Minori Uchida (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc)
Sue Trinh (Royal Bank of Canada)
Takafumi Yamawaki (JPMorgan Securities Japan Co Ltd)
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UUID: 7947283
(Bloomberg) -- Yield curve for Japan’s government debt lifts with the 10-year sovereign rising above zero for the first time in six months as the BOJ shifts tack to exceed its 2% inflation target.
Alert: HALISTER1- Calling the new policy “QQE with Yield Curve Control,” BOJ says it will buy JGBs such that 10-year yield remain at the current level of around zero percent
- BOJ will also buy JGBs at designated yields, and offer fixed-rate funds-supplying operations for up to 10 years
- Central bank left negative interest rate at -0.1% as well as annual pace of JGB purchases at 80t yen
- BOJ commits to expanding the monetary base until year- on-year rate of increase in CPI exceeds target
- USD/JPY climbs as much as 1.1% to 102.79; 10-year yield climbed to as high as 0.005%, before trading at -0.03%
- NOTE: BOJ leaks steepen yield curve with questions over method
- Norinchukin Research Institute (Takeshi Minami, chief economist)
- First option for the monetary policy seems to have shifted to deepening negative interest rate to steepen the yield curve; today’s decision sets up the environment to do that in the future
- 10-year yield may trade near 0% as the BOJ commits to that line; the central bank probably wants to steepen the curve up to 5-year tenor and therefore, close attention should be paid to repurchase program
- BOJ didn’t add to easing, but delivers framework for further easing, reducing downside risk for USD/JPY
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (Takafumi Yamawaki, chief rates strategist)
- BOJ is unlikely to cut short-term rates excessively; trying to control 10-year yield near 0% suggests 7-year rate on the futures will probably trade slightly below zero
- Volatility on yield curve will probably drop
- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (Minori Uchida, Tokyo-based head of global market research)
- Japanese bank shares, JGB 10-year yield and USD/JPY are rising on waning concerns over side effects of negative rate policy following BOJ’s decision
- Flexible monetary base target may spur speculation of reduced QE; BOJ’s scrapping of target for average maturity of govt bond holdings would shorten average maturity, not add to existing accommodative policy
- Today’s BOJ decision is unlikely to put downward pressure on yen, making it hard for USD/JPY to rise above 103; maintains view that USD/JPY will gradually drop, falling below 100 level toward year-end
- Citigroup (Todd Elmer, FX strategist)
- BOJ introducing two wrinkles that were not fully discounted may be seen as a net positive for risk appetite
- Implication is that BOJ is giving itself additional freedom to shape yield curve, and it’s voicing that this is an explicit aim
- Additional freedom to maintain the policy track indefinitely
- RBC Capital Markets (Sue Trinh, head of Asia FX strategy)
- BOJ appears to be laying the groundwork for more easing going forward but wants to take care of the banks first
- From a monetary-policy perspective this is a bit underwhelming as there are no aggressive moves
- Expects USD/JPY to move below 100 in coming weeks, if Fed holds rates unchanged
- FX Prime by GMO Corp. (Hiroshi Yanagisawa, a dealer)
- Gains in JGB yields following BOJ’s decision are helping to boost U.S. interest rates, supporting USD
- Markets seem to welcome BOJ’s plan to adjust its exchange-traded fund purchases to buy more ETFs tracking the Topix
- Treasuries 10-year yield now up 2 bps to 1.714%
- Mizuho Bank (Vishnu Varathan, economist)
- The strong easing bias and the alleviation of banking sector risks -- buoying Nikkei via relief in banking stocks -- is propping up dollar-yen
- Nordea (Amy Zhuang, senior analyst)
- BOJ shift in policy framework could be read as sign that it is reaching a limit with easing and isn’t as confident about monetary policy as its policy assessment suggests
- Disappointed that no new measures were introduced
- Reluctance to cut rates further may reflect resistance from financial institutions, which have complained about impact of negative rates on earnings and about low long- term yield
- SMBC Nikko Securities (Takayuki Atake, credit analyst)
- Japanese companies may be encouraged to continue selling longer-term bonds if there is a feeling that interest rates could rise
- Such sales will be affected more by underlying government bond yields rather than credit issues
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
Amy Zhuang (Nordea Markets)
Hiroshi Yanagisawa (GMO internet Inc)
Minori Uchida (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc)
Sue Trinh (Royal Bank of Canada)
Takafumi Yamawaki (JPMorgan Securities Japan Co Ltd)
To de-activate this alert, click here
UUID: 7947283