HALISTER1: Yellen Not Dovish Enough; Stay Long USTs, Bunds, Gilts: MS

Yellen Not Dovish Enough; Stay Long USTs, Bunds, Gilts: MS

(Bloomberg) -- Yellen was not dovish enough to assuage growth, inflation concerns; suggest investors remain long duration 5Y to 10Y Treasuries, Bunds, and Gilts ahead of G-20, ECB, Fed meetings, writes Morgan Stanley strategists led by Matthew Hornbach in Feb. 10 client note.
  • Until Fed makes clear “gradual” could mean just one or two rate hikes in 2016, instead of three or four, risk markets will struggle in the absence of positive catalysts
  • Expect worse-than-expected U.S. economic data to continue, maintain bullish on 5Y to 10Y Treasuries; expect 1.55%-1.75% range to contain yields until the March FOMC
  • Risks are skewed even lower yields, retain U.S. 2s10s curve flattening bias
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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MS US (Morgan Stanley)

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Matthew Hornbach (Morgan Stanley)

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