Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Odds that Yellen says something “actionable beyond what’s already in the market” on Fri. are “35/65”; odds that mkt finds something to trade on immediately anyway: “98/2,” FTN strategist Jim Vogel writes.

• Many investors can either wait until prices reflect her speech in the context of next wk’s data or “lean hard against any sharp reactions” to her comments
• “The more we spend time on scenarios for the next 18 months,” the further the Fed “drops down the list of priorities”; “global yields largely agree”
  • Even so, traders can’t allow positions to deteriorate on 30% chance Fed produces “a large enough surprise” to tilt playing field for next 6 mos.; that concern, along with “desperate need for any trading edge to close out 2016,” will bring volatility for at least next 2 trading sessions